A new study projecting obesity trends in the United States estimates that nearly half of the U.S. population—about 126 million people age 20 and older—will have obesity by 2035. The research, published in JAMA, examines the growing health crisis linked to multiple serious conditions including type 2 diabetes, heart disease, some cancers, kidney disease, and mental health issues.
Using data from nearly 11 million people, researchers found that just over 19% were obese in 1990, compared to 42.5% in 2022. The study estimated that 46.9% of people in the U.S. will have obesity by 2035. The research noted limitations, including that the definition of obesity is based solely on BMI, which “does not directly measure body fat or account for body composition and may incorrectly estimate the amount and location of adipose tissue versus lean muscle mass.”
The study found that women under 35 had the largest jump in obesity, a development researchers described as concerning, noting this “earlier onset of obesity” requires attention. According to Catherine Johnson, a research scientist at the University of Washington and co-author, “Public health strategies that deliver real results, as well as increased and equitable access to clinical interventions, are urgently needed to make a difference.”
However, other research has produced varying estimates. Researchers from Harvard and Mass General Brigham found that obesity rates had risen as high as 70% of Americans in a study published the previous year. Conversely, a study based on the Gallup National Health and Well-Being Index identified a decline in obesity rates to 37% in 2025, with part of the drop attributed to an increase in the use of GLP-1 medications for weight loss—jumping to 12.4% in 2025 from 5.8% in 2024.
The research comes less than a month after the federal government released new dietary guidelines advising Americans to eat more protein, including meat and full-fat dairy.
This article is an AI-assisted summary. All facts and figures are drawn from the original report: https://www.phillyvoice.com/obesity-rate-united-states-adults-projections/