Affordable Care Act enrollment is projected to plunge by nearly 5 million people this year, shrinking program participation by more than 20% according to analysis from the nonprofit healthcare research organization KFF. The dramatic decline reveals how rising health costs, particularly following the expiration of pandemic-era subsidies, are forcing Americans to choose between coverage and other basic needs.
ACA enrollment could fall from 22.3 million Americans in 2025 to around 17.5 million in 2026. The analysis relied on federal and state data plus findings from actuarial firm Wakely Consulting Group. Those remaining in the marketplace are paying significantly more: the average enrollee’s deductible grew by more than $1,000 and the average monthly premium payment rose by $65. As KFF Vice President Cynthia Cox stated, “No matter how you slice it, people are paying more.”
The unprecedented cost increases stem from the January 1 expiration of enhanced subsidies that had supported the vast majority of ACA enrollees for four years. Many Americans auto-renewed in their plans but found them far more expensive mid-year and lost coverage when unable to afford premiums. A higher proportion of middle-income Americans dropped coverage—those who earn too much to qualify for remaining low-income subsidies but insufficient income to comfortably afford coverage without pandemic-era support.
Many enrollees downgraded to lower-premium, higher-deductible plans, with some accepting deductibles of $7,000 to maintain coverage. Caitlin McElroy in Orlando saw her premium jump from $32 to $89 monthly to manage Crohn’s disease and mental health needs. Drops occurred across most states, though states with their own exchanges retained higher participation percentages than those relying on the federal marketplace.
This article is an AI-assisted summary. All facts and figures are drawn from the original report: https://www.griffindailynews.com/news/affordable-care-act-enrollment-projected-to-plunge-by-5-million-as-costs-spike-analysis-shows/article_d5217bfc-66f7-564b-b6b4-5488dc84baef.html