An independent economic analysis commissioned by Hawaii’s Department of Health Office of Medical Cannabis Control and Regulation found that the state’s medical cannabis program captures approximately 86% to 87% of all cannabis spending by registered patients and is effectively serving users. The report, prepared by Cannabis Public Policy Consulting and published in December 2025, evaluated Hawaii’s medical cannabis system and modeled the potential impacts of adult-use legalization.
Hawaii’s regulated medical cannabis program generates about $5.3 million in monthly sales, according to BioTrack seed-to-sale system data showing $5,336,700 in monthly dispensary sales. Researchers estimated the total cannabis market in Hawaii—including medical, gray, and illicit sources—ranges from about $16.5 million to $32 million per month, with medical dispensaries accounting for roughly one-third of that total. About one-quarter of all past-month cannabis consumers in Hawaii are registered medical patients. The state currently has eight licensed medical cannabis operators, all of which are vertically integrated.
Adult-Use Legalization Projections
If Hawaii legalizes adult-use cannabis, the report projects total cannabis sales across all sources could grow to between $59 million and $95 million per month within five years. Tourism is expected to be a major contributor, with visitor cannabis demand estimated to add at least $11.5 million per month under legalization. Surveys in Japan and Canada found that most respondents said legalization would not influence their decision to visit—approximately 57.5% of Japanese and 64.5% of Canadian respondents said it would have no effect on visit plans.
To meet projected adult-use demand, Hawaii would need at least 65 retail cannabis outlets statewide in the first year, with cultivation expanding substantially. The report recommends a 15% total tax rate to maximize revenue, while noting that a 10% rate could better retain consumers in the legal market. OMCCR Program Manager Andrew Goff stated that any adult-use system must account for the costs of protecting public health, and that cannabis revenue should support treatment, mental health services, public education, workforce development, and social equity initiatives. The report cautioned that greater availability could increase overall cannabis use, cannabis use disorder, drug-impaired driving, and youth exposure.
This article is an AI-assisted summary. All facts and figures are drawn from the original report: https://www.thegardenisland.com/2026/02/13/hawaii-news/report-shows-strong-use-of-hawaii-medical-cannabis-program/