New Medicaid eligibility restrictions may cause over a million missed cancer screenings within two years, according to research published in JAMA Oncology. A model analyzing the impact of two new requirements—a work requirement and re-verification of eligibility every six months—predicts nearly 1.2 million fewer colorectal, breast, or lung cancer screenings and 155 preventable deaths over two years.
The One Big Beautiful Bill, signed in July, cuts an estimated $1 trillion from Medicaid. The new eligibility requirements take effect January 1, 2027. To build their model, researchers used real-world natural experiments including data from Arkansas’s 2018 Medicaid work requirement implementation and enrollment changes when re-verification requirements were eased during COVID-19. They also incorporated CDC SEER and Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System databases.
Administrative burden and access impacts
The model predicts 7.5 million Medicaid beneficiaries will lose coverage. Adrian Diaz, a surgical oncologist at the University of Chicago and paper author, explained that coverage loss occurs through administrative mechanisms: missed submission deadlines for income verification, documents lost in processing, or bureaucratic delays lasting months. Affected individuals face risk of missing screening appointments and experiencing delayed cancer diagnoses.
The research also estimates 333 patients will be diagnosed at advanced stage cancer (stage 3 or 4) due to missed screenings. Diaz emphasized the stakes: “Each one of those 155 deaths is a mother, father, daughter…potentially curable disease.” The study did not fully address impacts on patients already diagnosed with cancer who lose coverage during active treatment, creating additional barriers to accessing chemotherapy and planned surgeries during critical treatment windows.
This article is an AI-assisted summary. All facts and figures are drawn from the original report: https://www.statnews.com/2026/01/08/medicaid-eligibility-rules-fewer-cancer-screenings-more-preventable-deaths/